The strength of the 2014 quarterback class relies heavily on redshirt sophomores like Oregon’s Marcus Mariota (Photo: tireball.com)
DraftBrowns.com Staff Writer: Justin Higdon
Each year when the draft ends, football takes a three-month nap (save for minicamps, police reports, and Tebow rumors) and a starved public immediately laments its absence. When August and the Hall of Fame Game roll around, that same public almost immediately turns its nose up and pushes the plate away asking for something more substantial. By the end of the month, rusty college teams have taken the field, and the hunger is satisfied briefly. Soon enough, a full helping of NFL games are served, and for a moment or two, all is right with the world.
Weeks later, following several servings of lackluster Thursday night offerings, complaints resurface. Often paid writers wonder aloud this time of year, “Why are you watching this game? At least I am being paid for my troubles.” Bully for them. But ‘tis not the season for griping about quality, for football supplies are rapidly diminishing. When it comes to a football season, it’s important to “love the one you’re with.” Two-thirds of this college football season has passed the world by, and nearly half of all NFL regular season games are in the books. Midseason is a time for appreciation, reflection, and of course…looking ahead to the NFL Draft. Here are a few spoonfuls of midseason draft notes.
As the 2013 NFL Draft approached, a common refrain from the chorus was that the quarterback class was weak, and that the 2014 offerings were worth the wait. The Bills drafted E.J. Manuel in the first round, but the remaining NFL teams subscribed to this notion and collectively passed on arms until the Jets took Geno Smith 39th overall. It’s mystifying that teams would sit on their hands considering how many continue to struggle with mediocrity and also-rans at the position, but the “wait ‘til next year” crowd clearly won out last April. Nine weeks into the college football season, Louisville junior Teddy Bridgewater remains the consensus top gun (as the prophets foretold last winter), but the quality of the crop behind him appears largely dependent on the declarations of three redshirt sophomores – Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel, Oregon’s Marcus Mariota and UCLA’s Brett Hundley.
The redshirt sophomore QB in the draft is a rare bird. Only three have entered (as far as I can tell – if you know of others, I would love to know) – Todd Marinovich in 1991, Tommy Maddox in 1992, and Michael Vick in 2001 – and only Vick remotely approached his potential. More recently, Andrew Luck had an opportunity to leave after his sophomore year, yet he ultimately opted to return to Stanford for his junior season of eligibility. By all accounts, Manziel will join the fraternity at the end of the year, but Mariotta and Hundley are no sure bets. If all three return to school, the senior class will once again leave something to be desired. Will teams continue to wait on the 2015 class to turn pro, or will they artificially elevate players like Tajh Boyd and A.J. McCarron? And how many will privately regret passing on Smith (who will have a full year as an NFL starter under his belt)?
LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger has drawn praise for the improvements he’s made between his junior and senior seasons, and has even made his way into the first round of some early mock drafts. The senior signal caller has a rocket attached to his right shoulder and a tall frame that has long been prized by NFL talent evaluators. During the Tigers’ 4-0 start, Mettenberger threw nine touchdown passes and just one interception. He added three more TDs without a pick in a narrow loss to Georgia. At that point in the season, many pundits seemed prepared to hand him a fictional “Most Improved Player” award.
In reality, the degree by which Mettenberger has advanced his level of play has been exaggerated. He threw three interceptions in the first half of a loss to Ole Miss, and followed that with two more INTs against Furman. Mettenberger is prone to high throws and relies heavily on his two star junior receivers, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, to climb the ladder and come down with acrobatic catches. Missing those passes upstairs by just a tick will lead to tip-drill or overthrow interceptions, especially in the middle of the field. Earlier in the season – against Georgia, for example – Mettenberger was getting away with elevated throws and completing them for big gains, but the law of averages has been catching up. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has done a good job playing to Mettenberger’s strengths. LSU has incorporated more back-shoulder and downfield throwing than at any time in recent memory, and the QB has responded by averaging over ten yards per pass attempt. But eventually, Mettenberger has to do a better job of bringing the ball down and leading his receivers, and he has not yet shown that he can do that consistently.
In comparing the 2012 Mettenberger to the present version, it would be unfair not to mention his more refined mechanics and quicker delivery. When he has time to survey the landscape and let his receivers get down the field he is capable of throwing strikes. Still, Mettenberger grapples with touch and trajectory, occasionally rifling a short pass or leaving a deep ball flat. And when pressure mounts, Mettenberger lacks elusiveness to escape and improvise. He is not a terrible athlete, but he doesn’t possess the foot speed to suggest he will be able to buy time and create against NFL pass rushers.
So yes, LSU’s senior quarterback is better this year. But his skill set will be a challenging sell for a league that seems interested in a sportier model, especially at the top of the draft. One gets the feeling that a front office that drafts Mettenberger in the first round would be settling on its third or fourth choice, much like the Cleveland Browns did when they drafted Brandon Weeden with the 22nd overall pick in 2012.
Prior to the season, when draft analysts discussed the Ohio State Buckeyes, their collective focus was predominantly on defensive players Bradley Roby and Ryan Shazier. Roby’s junior season began with a suspension at the outset of the season and snowballed with rocky showings against Wisconsin and Northwestern, and an ejection for targeting against Iowa. Shazier has been solid, but in recent weeks, Iowa and Penn State have seemingly dedicated an offensive lineman to locating him at the second level and keeping him away from the line of scrimmage. He’ll need to do a better job shedding or avoiding these blocks in the coming weeks. Roby and Shazier are physically gifted underclassmen, and still likely to be chose fairly high in the draft, but they have been overshadowed this season by many of their more seasoned teammates on the opposite side of the ball.
Through eight games, Ohio State is averaging nearly 300 yards per game and 6.2 yards per carry on the ground. Their success running the football begins with a senior-laden offensive line. Left tackle Jack Mewhort, left guard Andrew Norwell, center Corey Linsley and right guard Marcus Hall have all made at least 20 career starts, and have paved the way for one of 2013’s most explosive offenses. Jus two years ago, under interim Head Coach Luke Fickell, Ohio State’s offensive line was a train wreck. But Urban Meyer and his coaching staff have made line play a point of emphasis during his tenure, and the development of these four senior linemen is a testament to their hard work and to the tutelage of Offensive Line Coach Ed Warinner.
Mewhort is the best of the bunch, drawing praise from Meyer on an almost weekly basis. He excels at picking up blocks at the second level and has been instrumental in springing a number of long runs. Mewhort has looked at home playing left tackle this season, and has also seen time at both guard spots during his career. His versatility and experience will be seen as a plus when he auditions for NFL jobs, and he should hear his name called sometime on Day Two of the draft. Norwell, Linsley and Hall are not as talented as Mewhort, but all are gaining traction as draftable prospects.
With a mostly rock-steady line leading the way, the Buckeyes have found success with a number of ball carriers this season. Still it’s telling that the team has leaned heavily on senior running back Carlos Hyde since he returned from a three-game suspension. In four conference games he has carried 83 times for 549 yards, and he has rushed for seven touchdowns in Ohio State’s last three games. At 6’0” tall and 240 pounds, Hyde shows burst and agility not typically seen in backs his size. He hits his holes with authority, and while he has powered his way ahead in the past, Hyde is now showing improved vision to find cutback lanes and pick up extra yards. Against Iowa and Penn State he displayed quick feet and exceptional balance on a number of plays. Hyde has also looks more comfortable this season in the passing game and as a lead blocker on quarterback runs. These additions to his repertoire will serve him well at the next level. Much like Mewhort, Hyde’s development under Meyer’s coaching staff has transformed the running back from a late round afterthought into a legitimate Day Two draft prospect. However, Hyde was nearly kicked off the team this past summer after surveillance footage from a Columbus, Ohio bar appeared to show him taking a swipe at a female patron. He ultimately was not charged with a crime, and it is unclear what exactly took place that night, but his early season punishment is still fresh in the minds of NFL personnel. In the face of what is shaping up to be an outstanding senior season on the field, it will be interesting to see how that incident will affect his draft stock.